Is this Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan uncovered?
There’s a lot of commentary about the tariffs that Donald Trump is pushing onto Canada.
Here’s the thing: you cannot judge whether Donald Trump is making good decisions on any spectrum except the one he tells you he is going to use (then even, sometimes he isn’t always super transparent when he tells you things).
Donald Trump likes to win
That spectrum is “Winning”. It’s odd to talk about “winning” in a macro sense, as the stock market drops precipitously over the past few days (probably mostly due to traders hedging previous bets, not investors legitimately selling). But, Donald Trump is focused on winning. To understand his moves you have to envision yourself as him, and winning in ways that he wants to win in. That may not coordinate with traditional US foreign policy. It may not conform to traditional GOP or even conservative standards. But Donald Trump sets his own goals and then (usually) works within the given strict parameters to win on those goals.
I’m not telling you that you have to like Donald Trump, or even be happy with his decisions. But I do think you are misunderstanding what he cares about. There are plenty of things about Donald Trump (though I don’t personally know him) that rub me the wrong way, but I can respect that we disagree on those things.
Donald Trump, while many don’t enjoy him, he is a hardcore rules follower. What?!??! You say… But hear me out. You saw Donald Trump with the Electoral college, crushing Hilary Clinton’s campaign to come from nowhere to win the presidency. Then you saw him appeal, and defend himself in lawsuits and win by technicality, or avoid going to jail because he had met a minimum standard. Sure you could argue that if he hadn’t been elected president, he’d be in prison somewhere. But that’s the point: He won. His idea of winning was to stay out of jail. He did that.
Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan: Don’t get bullied – even if you have to bully others to accomplish that
Donald Trump has also been saying for years he doesn’t like to see the USA get bullied. Watch any of his 1980’s or 1990’s interviews where geopolitics is a topic, and you hear him say things like this.
He didn’t (at least to my knowledge), ever say that he cares what happens to Canada.
Here’s what Canada’s role in Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan is
Here’s how I think he is playing the Canada scenario.
He knows that Americans can handle a tough market for a few months. So the tariffs make sense. Because the Canadians will have to capitulate. The EU and Canada are using the media to act like they are talking about getting together. They aren’t. There would be too much negative impact and fallout with China and Russia, among others for that to be a realistic expectation.
So when Trump says 50% tariffs on steel, etc. He knows that it’s just a matter of wearing down the Canucks until they hurt enough to consider another potential outcome. Already it’s sowing dissension in the ranks in Canada. 51st state? I think not. But Donald Trump doesn’t really want Canada as the 51st state. He wants access to the future-proofing of valuable minerals and oil and waterways of the great white north. With global warming accelerating according to all the scientists, that land is going to be primed to pump, drill and mine in a few years, and having access to it would be great for the USA. Not to mention, the USA doesn’t want China to make strategic alliances with Canada. All this puts Canada over a barrel a bit. Canada wouldn’t dare lose the value of the exports to the USA. They cannot guarantee they can replace them all for the foreseeable future. It’d be a military/defense, and fiscal detriment to even consider something like that.
Why Canada Won’t join the EU (Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game plan depends on it)
While European exports make sense, there is likely to be pressure from the USA to send oil, at a high volume that way. Which means they have leverage over Canada. Therefore EU inclusion would be a death knell for any real fiscal ambitions Canada has in the next 50 years, while causing all kinds of near-term problems for the Canadian economy. It’s also important to note that the USA can threaten to decouple from NATO, in order to force the Europeans to buy American Oil, because Russia and China are too scary without USA help.
EU and NATO spending from European countries on specifically the defense sector means they are woefully out of trajectory to compete with a Real Russian threat. And if you think that sending 200k troops to take Ukraine was a legitimate threat for annexation of Ukraine, then you need to revisit reality. Putin did not go into Ukraine to take over the country. He went in for a lot of different reasons, but has been restrained along the way.
Are we evaluating Putin’s success or failure properly in Ukraine?
And I’m no apologist for Putin. Clearly he thought he’d do better than he has done in Ukraine. But note: He annexed Crimea – his real war prize relatively easily; and they took back roughly 25% of Ukraine, which in any peace negotiations stays in Russia’s control.
He got most of what he wanted, and while it was bloody, it also showed he gives zero F**ks about what anyone else thinks about him. Somehow, in the DNA, despite poor war decisions by generations of Soviet and Russian leadership, there still breeds this nationalism that is forever. Those who die for their country (and their survivors) in Mother Russia, love that they can claim their unflinching patriotism to the cause. He holds roundtables frequently with the leftovers from war casualties. And they applaud him. Weird, but true.
So, with Canada forced to stay anchored to the USA, for better or worse, there will eventually be capitulation. And Donald Trump would never allow the hard left citizens of his chosen 51st state to have much voting power. And he certainly wouldn’t allow them to have state slots numbered 51-59 (or thereabouts) by allowing each province to have control. He’d combine the West and Quebec somehow, and eventually the French contingent would be silenced or find ways out of North America if there is a union between the great North American countries.
The others which lean moderate, and slightly right, like Saskatchewan and Alberta, etc. he’d probably give more voting capacity to, and we’d end up with some “protectorates” (think the Northwest territories, and Nova Scotia), and 3-4 states as a way to include Canada into the American republic. In fact you only really have to add one letter to America, to get the new nation’s moniker: AMERI-CAN. It’s easy to see how the flowchart works here.
Is it part of Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan to absorb Canada?
You will say: “Are you seriously trying to sell me on the idea that Canada will unite with the USA??”
Not necessarily, but I am explaining how the mind of Donald Trump is likely wandering on this one.
He knows that Canada cannot reasonably defend all that land and sea border. And the left leaning politicians, without the protection of the USA, are fearful of Russia, China (eventually) and maybe even a few other countries. So he has them scared to decouple militarily. From a fiscal perspective, some of the more right leaning provinces are among the best run provinces in Canada, producing surpluses.
Canadians would instantly recognize better rights, and more access to USA goods/services/accoutrements, and so the citizenry, even if they hate Trump, would almost uniformly admit that there are a few benefits to uniting.
Canada is afraid to go it alone and move to the EU, though I bet the EU would gladly take their oil and minerals. Ultimately, Canada is not in a position to have to go to war without the backing of the USA in order to protect NATO or the EU. Russian “aggression” has scared Europe into getting larger.
Is it part of Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan to decouple from NATO?
Because Trump can always threaten to decouple from NATO, and because NATO is 15 years behind on defense technology and equipment, this is not necessarily a time of power from NATO. With the exception of the Nordic Countries, Poland, and a few others, there is likely to be a stagnation in NATO, and they wouldn’t dare allow Ukraine at this point. Certainly they must know that Russia is at least willing to go to war, even if they cherry pick jabs at Putin knowing full-well that he only brought a handful of troops.
A new trilateral group? Is this a Legit tactic to solve multiple problems at once?
Russia, if they worked together with Saudi Arabia and the USA – and you didn’t seriously think they staged Ukraine war peace talks in the KSA to help Ukraine did you(?) – would be able to easily start modernizing their military a bit more. They’d be less sensitive to China’s demands, and if Trump can pull off the trilateral front with KSA and Russia, then China would be effectively neutered for the foreseeable future. It would greatly anger China if this were the case, but there is a solid argument to be made that about half of the USA’s citizenry would be able to stomach an alliance with Russia and KSA strategically and economically in order to dissuade China from making militarism moves.
Trump pivots, and moves, and twitches, and feints a lot. He’s wishy-washy, but it’s likely because he has game-planned this a trillion times in his head, and he knows how he wants to win.
Is Greenland a realistic acquisition in Donald Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan?
I would venture a guess he’d rather have Denmark out of the equation with Greenland, and have Greenland as the 51st state of choice, but he has to play it cool on that front so as not to tempt the NATO alliance or the EU to do something stupid. He also knows that by NOT taking military advances off the table re: Greenland, he has Russia’s interests peaked. They surely know that a strategic base and strike power from Greenland, not to mention the fleet of submarines – Many of which next generation types go online in the next 2-7 years – is a sketchy proposition at best. It keeps Russia at the table.
Putin knows he needs more cash flow. The USA prints money like it’s going out of style. If Putin wants peace to build up his armies, and money to do the same, he’d be pretty interested in economic ties to the USA, et al.
Breaking news! Donald Trump’s Master-planned geopolitical strategy is coming together in real-time
NOTE: As I type this, Marco Rubio has stated that Ukraine has accepted a peace deal agreement for the next 30 days. This means that at least some of what I have outlined above has already come into play. The 30 days isn’t for Ukraine – it’s for the USA and Russia to figure out how THEY move forward together, preferably with the partnership of KSA.
KSA sees the value of helping to contain the Muslim and Arab world vs. Israel, and more broadly “The West”. Afterall, they know that they only have a few more decades of power coming from their oil production. That’s why they are trying to legitimize/diversify away from the petro-state situation. This position helps them maximize oil production value, while still decoupling from the petro-state title.
Let’s tie together all these loose ends and concepts into a broader, somewhat cohesive Geo-political Game Plan for Donald Trump
Ok, so back to the narrative I’m trying to craft because it’s much bigger than just these points.
Trump also wants mineral rights from Ukraine. Russia wants to sell rare-earth minerals to the USA. To get both would bother China to no end. Couple that with the chips control, from the USA side, and China becomes the pariah that Russia is now, and Russia starts to be able to come out of a crippling past 20+ years post cold war, thanks to newfound economic relationships, with, of all nations, the USA. They start to sell fighter jets to the Saudis, and they each control vast resources of oil. At least 3 of the top 5 oil producing nations being in an economic relationship, even if they ostensibly don’t really get along is enough to guarantee world peace control for at least the next 20-25 years.
If the Saudis wield enough influence, combined with the “backing” of the USA and Russia, and then ostensibly decent ties to NATO through the USA (who is only threatening to de-couple from NATO to goad Russia into working together economically), then the peace in the Gaza strip is all but controllable for the next 10+ years. Add Turkey, by way of their NATO connection; Egypt and Jordan through their necessary ties to KSA and other power brokers in the region, and there is a real showstopper of a second term shaping up for Donald J. Trump.
Is Trump’s Geo-political Game Plan really just about natural resources?
But wait, there’s more:
If Trump can control Greenland, and at least parts of Canada in a protectorate or economic alliance status, he can drill infinitely, for minerals, uranium, precious metals, petroleum products, and then reinvent the western world away from traditional capitalist and imperialist concepts, while still being a capitalist, and at least a Nationalist, without ever really being called an imperialist. By the way: Control the uranium you control the ability to have more nukes than your neighbor. He doesn’t want nukes to be in the equation – no one does, but it’s a good deterrent to say: we have X-amount of enriched uranium more than you do. It’s the backup plan to MAD (mutually assured destruction), because it further enhances one’s ability to theoretically destroy their opposition even to a greater extent.
Is Mexico finally getting its day in the limelight?
Mexico is the wild card, but not because they are particularly smart from a strategic perspective. If they were, they’d have their cartel control issues dealt with already. but , they have accomplished a few interesting channels of forward momentum. They threaten by upsetting the supply chain. They threaten by replacing the utility to some extent of the Panama Canal, which has been a firebrand in the works recently having been taken over by Blackrock. They also have decent ties to India and China from a manufacturing perspective. But with the right influence from Trump, Japan, and enough pressure on the tariff front for a few months to make it hurt a little, Trump can likely finish a coup on keeping Gloria Sheinbaum, et al, in check for at least 15 years.
Trump doesn’t even need all these wins to WIN in the Geo-political chess game
But that’s the point. Trump doesn’t need everything to go perfectly to win. He just needs a few of the balls to stay in play, and a couple of them to actually hit. If Canada + Mexico winning happens as a result of the tariff pressure, then he has the power to rewrite existing relations with the two countries gaining “parity” (his words), but really it is more like surplus, relative to the two countries.
Furthermore, if he gets rare-earth minerals from Ukraine and Russia, he doesn’t have to be beholden to the strict export limitations of China. If he can get the Saudis to agree to broker some semblance of peace in the middle east, he can keep the Israeli contingent from starting another world war, while simultaneously averting a World War 3 in mainland Europe.
Forcing NATO to rearm, at threat of the USA exiting the alliance, prepares them to handle Russia alone if Russia at some point goes rogue – for real. And they will also still have close ties to the USA, even upon a NATO withdrawal, so China is a non factor for the western world for the next 8-12 years. But leaving NATO has never been a real threat – if Donald can keep his ego in check, it will never need to be a realistic promise to keep. Then Trump retains control over defense for the foreseeable future in all areas of potential conflict.
There are still going to be small conflicts. But not world ending ones. Here’s the epic conclusion:
No one likes terrorists – at least not publicly, so there is likely to be less drama on the terrorist front for the next several years. The USA is not afraid to drone blast insurgent groups randomly in order to “keep the status quo”. And there will be a few of those occurrences. But no one is going to be up in arms about it at the “Consequential Nation-State” level.
Yes, this makes for a lot of different nation states stewing in their building aggression towards the USA long-term, but it solidifies Donald Trump’s winning for the next decade at least.
And that’s what he cares about. He cares about winning the game, even if there is a long-term component that negatively affects future generations. He likes the idea of the underdog. He’s never really been the underdog, despite what he says, but he quite fancies himself something of an underdog who makes dramatic and calculated comebacks. His smug grins and upturned nose and pursed lips are nightmare fuel for all his opponents I suppose. But this is the deal. He wants to be remembered for big things. And in a life full of big things having already been accomplished, he now gets to plan, and carry out his opus on the biggest stage in the world, at one of the most incoherent and dangerous times from a geopolitical perspective in the history of the world.
What Do you think? Am I crazy? And I off my rocker? Is this all unrealistic and without basis? I’d love to hear what you have to say about it. What did I miss? Got an alternate theory that can be based on actual moves already made, or being made now? I want to hear it.